Perhaps Texas will struggle away from home, but we shall see. The Longhorns are coming off a 16-point win over the Jayhawks at home on Sunday after losing two straight on the road. 7), which has the highest chance of winning the tournament, per TRACR. The Jayhawks won the title last season and went on to a national title. 1 overall seed with a conference tournament title. 8) is likely a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and can be the No. Atlantic 10 (March 7-12 at Brooklyn, New York) Having Notre Dame back in tournament contention will help revive the ACC after a few dormant seasons. Oklahoma’s Porter Moser may be the top pick. It will be interesting to see who the Irish might land in the offseason. This will be the final ACC tournament for Mike Brey, who is leaving after 23 seasons with Notre Dame. They can still lose to Duke in the quarterfinals and dance. The Panthers still should be in at 14-6 in the conference, but an early loss in the second round might put them on the bubble. The Panthers seemed to have an NCAA Tournament bid secured before losing to Notre Dame and Miami. Jeff Capel has done a tremendous job this season at Pittsburgh (67th), but he’ll have his toughest challenge to date in the ACC tournament. Our model currently has NC State in and Clemson as a first four out. The winner of that one might go on to dance, and the loser the NIT. If the Wolfpack (48th) can survive against the winner of Virginia Tech (69th) and Notre Dame (140th), we’ll get a great quarterfinal between NC State and Clemson. They just lost to the Cavaliers on the road, but this came before winning by 25 at NC State. The Tigers have the second-highest chance of winning the tournament, per TRACR, and have a somewhat easy route to the semifinals. I am quite curious to see how Clemson (34th) fares. Virginia (43rd) has recovered slightly with two home wins after two bad losses on the road. The Hurricanes have had a fantastic stretch as well. The Blue Devils have won six in a row, but they did lose to the top three seeds at one point this season. Miami (47th) won the ACC, but TRACR projects fourth-seeded Duke (18th) to come out on top. In case you missed it, check out the projections at the bottom of this page from the tournaments that begin last week.Īmerican Athletic Conference / Atlantic Coast Conference / Atlantic 10 / Big 12 / Big East / Big Ten / Big West / Conference USA / Ivy League / MAAC / MAC / MEAC / Mountain West / Pac-12 / Southeastern Conference / SWAC / WACĪmerican Athletic Conference (March 9-12 at Fort Worth, Texas) The model rewards teams that do well against good teams and punishes those that do poorly against weaker squads. TRACR, which we also have for college football, is a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted by the team it plays. We’ve simulated each tournament thousands of times using TRACR (our Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) to generate our bracket predictions. Will Purdue cap off a brilliant season and win the Big Ten? Could Kansas earn the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament? Will we see madness in Madison Square Garden for the Big East tournament? There are still 17 conference tournaments that begin this week, highlighted by the six major conferences in Division I. Who will advance? Who will fall and barely miss the NCAA Tournament? Will the bubble burst? The second weekend of conference tournament play is here. It is hard to believe that we will have plenty of basketball from now until the bracket is revealed, but that’s the beauty of March.
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